North Vancouver House Price Forecast (2026–2027)

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Updated 5 October 2026. Every figure on this page was re-checked against the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® September 2026 release (published 2 October 2026), the Bank of Canada, and the current BCREA and CREA forecasts on that date. The next monthly release is due in early November 2026.

North Vancouver buyers and sellers want one thing from a forecast: a number they can plan around. Nobody can give you that honestly. What I can give you is what the market is actually doing right now, which direction the measured pressure points, and the three or four things that would have to change for prices to move either way.

The short answer as at early October 2026: prices across Metro Vancouver have been drifting down all year, sales are running well below normal, and in September the measure the board itself uses to judge price pressure fell below the line where it says prices come under downward pressure. In North Vancouver the detached benchmark is down 6.2% on a year earlier. Interest rates have stopped falling. None of that points to a quick turn before the end of the year.

What this page expected a year ago, and what happened

An earlier version of this page, written on autumn 2025 figures, set a base case for the twelve months to autumn 2026 of North Vancouver detached prices moving sideways or rising 1–3%, townhouses rising 0–2%, and a weaker case of a 3–4% fall. That base case was wrong. By September 2026 the North Vancouver detached benchmark was $2,042,000, down 6.2% on a year earlier, and the townhouse benchmark was $1,230,400, down 4.9% (GVR September 2026 statistics package). Both came in below even the weaker case.

I would rather show you that than quietly swap the numbers. It is also why everything below is written as scenarios built from published data, with the sources linked, and not as a prediction.

What the latest data implies for a North Vancouver house price forecast

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® publishes the numbers that any honest forecast has to start from. These are the September 2026 figures, released on 2 October 2026 and current as this was written.

Measure, September 2026	Figure	Change on a year earlier	Against the 10-year average
Residential sales	1,717	Down 8.4% from 1,875	25% below (2,289)
New listings	5,852	Down 10.3% from 6,527	5.7% above (5,537)
Total active listings	16,394	Down 4% from 17,079	24.3% above (13,186)
Composite benchmark price	$1,075,900	Down 5.5%	Down 0.6% on the month
Detached benchmark	$1,784,700	Down 7.3%	Down 0.8% on the month
Townhouse benchmark	$1,016,700	Down 4.7%	Down 1.2% on the month
Apartment benchmark	$682,500	Down 6.2%	Down 0.5% on the month
Sales-to-active-listings ratio	10.9%	Detached 9.7%, attached 12.2%, apartment 11.4%	Below 12% sustained means downward pressure

Two things in that table matter more than the rest. First, the shape of the weakness: listings are not piling up, sales are simply not happening. Second, that last row. The ratio is the board’s own gauge, and GVR states the thresholds plainly: “downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.”

At 10.9% overall in September, down from 12.3% in August and 13% in July, the Metro market has just crossed that lower line. Detached homes have been below it for at least three months (10.5% in July, 9.6% in August, 9.7% in September). Apartments are at 11.4% and attached homes at 12.2%, either side of it. One month below 12% is not yet the sustained reading GVR describes, but the direction is clear. That is the single most useful number in any forecast, and it is published every month. You can read it yourself in the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® September 2026 release.

One caution about North Vancouver specifically. GVR does not publish a sales-to-active-listings ratio for individual municipalities. Any article quoting a “North Vancouver SALR” has calculated it or borrowed it from somewhere unofficial. The figures above are for Metro Vancouver as a whole. For current North Shore benchmarks by property type, see the North Shore market stats page, which is updated as each monthly release lands.

For North Vancouver itself, the September 2026 benchmarks in the GVR September 2026 statistics package are: composite $1,290,400 (down 1.1% in the month and 3.9% on the year), detached $2,042,000 (down 2.2% and 6.2%), townhouse $1,230,400 (down 1.4% and 4.9%) and apartment $769,000 (down 0.2% and 3.2%). There were 126 sales (59 detached, 25 attached, 42 apartments) against 554 new listings.

Drivers behind the North Vancouver house price forecast

Four things are doing the work right now, and three of them are outside the North Shore entirely.

Interest rates have stopped falling. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, held at the 2 September 2026 decision. The next announcement is 28 October 2026. Total inflation was 3.0% in the twelve months to August 2026, which is above the Bank’s 2% target and is the reason further cuts are not a given.

Demand, not supply, is the problem. GVR’s chief economist Andrew Lis put it this way in the August release: “Ample selection, softening prices, and stable mortgage rates are considered favorable buying conditions, but they haven’t been enough to bring many buyers off the sidelines.”

Immigration and investors. Lis named the causes directly: “we still believe the main drivers of this soft market are the slowdown in immigration to our region, reduced investor demand, and mortgage rates that aren’t low enough to incentivize robust buying activity.”

Inventory is receding from its peak. This is the one that could turn. Active listings are down 4% on the year. In August Lis noted that “inventory levels have receded from their 2025 heights,” and in September he said: “The combination of slow sales and inventory trending lower has kept home prices from declining too swiftly.” Falling inventory is normally a firming signal. It is not firming prices yet because sales are still well below normal.

Short-term view: the next three to six months

Autumn and winter are seasonally the quietest part of the year on the North Shore, and this year starts that stretch with sales already a quarter below normal (25% below the ten-year average in September). The reasonable expectation is continued drift rather than a turn.

GVR itself has trimmed its expectations. Lis said in the August release that “the modest downward revisions we recently made to our 2026 forecast were a timely and prudent decision,” and added that “since May, sales have lagged our January forecast, and we expect that trend to persist to the end of the year.”

That is the board’s own economist saying the rest of 2026 looks soft. It is worth more than anyone’s guess, mine included.

The 12-month outlook, through autumn 2027

Further out, the honest answer is that it depends on the Bank of Canada and on immigration, and neither is forecastable from a real estate office.

What can be said is what each path would look like. If rates start falling again and inflation settles back toward target, the sidelined demand GVR describes has somewhere to go, and a market with shrinking inventory can firm quickly. If rates hold and immigration stays slow, the drift continues, because nothing in the current data creates buyers.

The published forecasts now point the same way. The British Columbia Real Estate Association’s forecast of 20 August 2026 expects BC MLS® sales to fall 1.2% this year to 69,325 units and the provincial average price to fall 1.2% to $941,800, and says the price decline “largely reflects disproportionate weakness in more expensive markets in the Lower Mainland.” It expects sales to rise 7.5% in 2027. The Canadian Real Estate Association’s forecast of 15 July 2026 expects average prices in B.C. to decline by less than 1% in 2026. Greater Vancouver REALTORS® has said it made “modest downward revisions” to its own 2026 forecast. Note that these are provincial averages; the North Vancouver detached benchmark was already down 6.2% on the year by September. Read the forecasts yourself on the BCREA housing forecast page and CREA’s quarterly forecasts page; both are revised each quarter.

North Vancouver house price forecast: the base case

Flat to modestly lower into spring 2027, with detached houses the softest segment.

The reasoning is the property-type spread. Across Metro Vancouver, detached is down 7.3% year over year on a 9.7% sales-to-active ratio: the weakest price move and the weakest demand signal, together. Townhouses are down 4.7% on a 12.2% attached ratio, the only segment still above GVR’s 12% line. Apartments sit between them, down 6.2% on 11.4%. In North Vancouver, detached is down 6.2% and townhouses 4.9%, while apartments have held up better than the region, down 3.2%.

Treat this as a scenario built from published data, not a prediction. Nobody can tell you what a specific house will be worth next spring, and a forecast that sounds certain is telling you something about the person who wrote it rather than about the market.

Stretch scenarios, up and down

• Firmer than the base case. The Bank cuts in October and again in the new year, inflation eases, and inventory keeps declining. Sidelined buyers return into a thinner market and the ratio climbs back toward 20%, which is GVR’s own upward-pressure threshold.
• Weaker than the base case. Rates hold through 2027, immigration stays slow, and the spring listing wave arrives into the same absent demand. The ratio, which slipped to 10.9% in September, stays below 12%, which is the condition GVR associates with falling prices.
• The one nobody prices in. Something external: a change in mortgage qualification rules, a tax change, a shift in trade conditions. Lis referred to “renewed trade tensions with the USA” as “an unwelcome distraction” in August. These arrive without notice and move markets faster than fundamentals do.

How this forecast varies by property type

Detached homes

The softest segment on both measures: the Metro benchmark is down 7.3% year over year, and the sales-to-active ratio is 9.7%, below the 12% line. In North Vancouver the detached benchmark is $2,042,000, down 6.2%. Metro detached sales in September were 575, up 4.2% on the year.

For a seller, that means pricing to the market rather than to last year, and expecting a longer marketing period than you would have had in 2021. For a buyer, it is the segment where negotiation is most available. On the North Shore, condition and land matter more than the benchmark: an older house with a buried oil tank or unresolved drainage is not the same asset as the one next door. The checklist for older North Shore homes is where to start.

Townhouses

The most resilient segment. The Metro benchmark is down 4.7%, the smallest fall of the three, on a 12.2% ratio, the highest of the three. Attached sales were 358 in September, up 0.6% on the year. In North Vancouver the townhouse benchmark is $1,230,400, down 4.9%.

That is the closest thing to a balanced segment on the board, though at 12.2% it is only just above GVR’s lower line. It is also the segment where the building’s paperwork does most of the work on price.

Apartments

The Metro benchmark is $682,500, down 6.2% year over year, on an 11.4% ratio. Apartment sales were 777 in September, down 18.6%, the largest sales decline of the three types; GVR’s chief economist said the September weakness “is contained to the sizeable apartment segment.” In North Vancouver the apartment benchmark is $769,000, down 3.2%.

In this segment the benchmark tells you least. Two units in the same postcode can be worth very different money depending on envelope history, the depreciation report and what the strata has planned. Read what to look for in a depreciation report and the rainscreen and envelope history before you draw conclusions from a price per square foot.

The indicators actually worth watching

Four numbers, all free, all published on a schedule. Check these instead of reading forecasts.

• The sales-to-active-listings ratio, monthly, from GVR. The 12% and 20% lines are the board’s own. This is the earliest reliable signal of a turn.
• The Bank of Canada policy rate. Next announcement 28 October 2026. Rate direction decides how much buying power exists.
• Total CPI inflation. It was 3.0% in August 2026. While it sits above target, cuts are harder to justify.
• Active listings against the ten-year average. Currently 24.3% above it. When that gap closes, supply stops being the cushion it has been.

Strategy for buyers, sellers and investors

If you are buying

You are shopping in the most favourable conditions in several years by GVR’s own description of selection and pricing, and the reason is that other buyers are not competing with you. Take the time that gives you: proper subject periods, a real inspection, the strata documents read rather than skimmed.

Do not try to time the exact bottom. Nobody identifies it until afterwards, and a rate cut can remove your negotiating room in a single month.

If you are selling

Price against sales from the last sixty days, not against what your neighbour got in 2022. In a market where the benchmark has fallen every month, an asking price anchored to last year’s figure collects viewings and no offers, and then needs a reduction that reads as weakness.

Presentation matters more when buyers have 16,394 alternatives across Metro Vancouver. So does having your paperwork ready before the first showing.

If you are investing

Run the numbers on today’s rent and today’s rate, not on an assumed rise in either. Annual rent increases in British Columbia are capped by the Province, so a below-market tenancy cannot simply be repriced. And if the property you are buying or selling already has a tenant, the rules on notice and vacant possession decide your timeline: see selling a house with tenants in BC.

Fast answers on the North Vancouver house price forecast

Will North Vancouver prices fall further? The measured direction is down and GVR’s economist expects the soft trend to persist to the end of 2026. Whether that continues into 2027 depends mostly on interest rates and immigration. Anyone giving you a percentage is guessing.

When will prices rise again? Watch the sales-to-active-listings ratio rather than the calendar. GVR associates sustained readings above 20% with upward pressure. It was 10.9% in September 2026.

Are detached homes safer than condos right now? On the current numbers, no. Detached has fallen furthest (7.3% across Metro Vancouver, 6.2% in North Vancouver) and has the weakest demand signal (9.7%). Townhouses have held up best across the region, and in North Vancouver apartments have fallen least. “Safer” also depends entirely on the specific building or the specific lot.

Is this a good time to buy on the North Shore? It is a good time to negotiate, and a poor time to expect quick appreciation. Whether it is a good time for you depends on how long you intend to own and whether your financing works at today’s rate, not on a forecast.

Where do these numbers come from? The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® September 2026 MLS® release and statistics package for sales, listings, the ratio and the benchmarks; the Bank of Canada for the policy rate; Statistics Canada for inflation; and the BCREA and CREA forecast pages for the provincial outlook. All are linked above. Check them yourself, because they change monthly.

Read next

• North Shore market stats — the current benchmark prices, updated as each monthly release lands
• Selling a house with tenants in BC — the notice, the timeline and what the tenant is owed
• Strata depreciation reports: what to look for — why two identical condos are worth different money
• Older North Shore homes: what to check — condition matters more than the benchmark
• How many homes you can build on one lot — what changes a lot’s value on the North Shore
• All of Tom’s North Shore neighbourhood and buyer guides

Disclaimer. This page is general market information, not advice about a specific property, and nothing on it is legal, tax or financial advice. It is not a valuation or an appraisal, and the scenarios described are scenarios built from published data, not predictions. Benchmark prices, sales figures, the sales-to-active-listings ratio, interest rates, inflation and published forecasts all change, most of them monthly or quarterly. Every figure here was checked against its source, linked beside it, on 5 October 2026; last reviewed October 2026. Before you rely on anything on this page, confirm the current position with the authority that owns it: Greater Vancouver REALTORS® for market figures, the Bank of Canada for interest rates, Statistics Canada for inflation, and BCREA and CREA for their forecasts. Take independent legal, tax and financial advice before committing money to a purchase or a sale.

Written by Tom Jahed, licensed REALTOR®, Vanak Realty, North Vancouver.